Geographical units

The analysis happens at the level of the three basins of interest: The Xingu, Tocantins and Sâo Francisco basins, shown in figure A below.

The sources of data used in the analysis are available at several spatial scales, including at the ERA5 gridcell level (Figure B), and at the municipality level (Figures C and D). In Figure C, the borders of the municipalities involved are displayed along the borders of the basins; in Figure D, the share of area of each municipality in each basin is shown.

The data available from the National Water Agency is at the microbasin level, not shown in the figures below. The Tocantins basin is divided in around 22 thousand microbasins, the Xingu around 8 thousand, and the São Francisco 50 thousand microbasins.

Land use in the basin across time



Municipality to basin

If we assume that the proportion of a certain activity or land use in each basin is proportional to the amount of area of that municipality that is in this basin, how much error can be generated?

In the case of pastures, the shaer of pastures in each municipality and basin was estimated, and then we analyzed how the share of pasture area in each basin is correlated to the share of municipality area in each basin.

As the graph below shows, in most cases that is a good assumption in general, but it can be quite misleading for some municipalities.





Green water use

Evaporation for each land use types





Overall green water changes



Blue water use



Overall estimation of water uses from ANA



Microbasin-level, 2022



Water consumption and withdrawal per type of use per basin



Water consumption per type of use per basin - percentages

This was estimated by ANA for the year 2017.



Per municipality, across time

Our estimations

Impoundment evaporation - medium version

Livestock - cattle

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## `summarise()` has grouped output by 'basincode', 'basinname', 'YEAR'. You can
## override using the `.groups` argument.



Livestock - others







All consumption - Blue







Moisture recycling ratio



newnms SFrancisco Tocantins Xingu
SFrancisco 12.9 7.8 1.6
Tocantins 4.6 11.4 3.1
Xingu 2.0 11.1 8.3

Figure 1: Green + Blue water use for each basin and each sector (at one point in time)

Storyline: - Dominance of agriculture in water use - Highlighting irrigation + cattle as main consumers (beyond domestic + industry) - Separation of reservoir allocation - Breakdown of natural vegetation contribution vs. ag - Importance of rainfed ag + pasture (volume + %) - try it out

Figure 1b: Spatially explicit green and blue water use.

Figure 2: Moisture recycling (and runoff?)

Inside + outside, moisture recycling ratio (idea: for 3 basins together in body of manuscript, 3 basins separately in SI)

Storyline: - Results from Paper 2 aggregated here - Inter-basin connectivity, relationship between basins - Moisture recycling ratio

Table 1: Green + Blue water scarcity, BIER + BEER

Storyline: - Blue water scarcity - magnitude and sources of scarcity - Green water scarcity - new indicator - potential role of neighboring basins

Figure 3: Temporal component (?)

Storyline: Show the effects of extensification/intensification in these processes

Figure 4: Trade component, focused on China, EU and Brazil (soy + beef)

Storyline: - Shared responsibility, risks - Does one consumption center supply affect another?

Table 2: Summary of relationship between consumption centers?