Argentina insights for v.1.1
Michael Lathuilliere
Dec 1 2023
This document updates Argentina soy insights that were first created for the for the trase Yearbook 2020. These results are now generated for Argentina soy v.1.1.0 to be presented in the slide deck for engagement.
Argentina soybean production
Argentina soybean production was obtained using soybean maps from Song et al. (2021). Important note: soybean production was validated against official Argentina soybean production results for the 2015-2019 period only
The table below shows the area of soybean planted over time in Argentina.
## Joining with `by = join_by(year)`
Soybean production decreased between 2015 and 2018 going from 62.3 Mtons in 2015 to 36.1 Mtons in 2018, increasing to 53.3 Mtons in 2019. Over the same time period, soybean area changed from 19.3 Mha in 2015 to 15.8 in 2019.
Soybean production per province has dropped since 2018:
- Buenos Aires 18.5 Mtons (5.8 Mha) in 2015 to 15.4 Mtons (4.6 Mha) in 2019
- Cordoba 18.9 Mtons (5.4 Mha) in 2015 to 15.7 Mtons (4.4 Mha) in 2019
- Santa Fe 13.1 Mtons (3.5 Mha) in 2015 to 10.4 Mtons (2.8 Mha) in 2019
- Santiago del Estero 2.6 Mtons (1.0 Mha) in 2015 to 3.4 Mtons (1.1 Mha) in 2019
Argentina’s deforestation
Argentina territorial and past soy deforestation were obtained using soybean maps from Song et al. (2021) and a deforestation mask created using maps Baumann et al. (in review).
Territorial deforestation
Territorial deforestation dropped from a high of 534438 ha in 2004 to a low of 194818 before increasing greatly in 2020 at ha.Note that the 2020 data is not very reliable at the time being, so do not quote it.
Soy deforestation (past soy deforestation)
| year | HA | MtCO2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 78904.0 | 17.0 |
| 2016 | 69020.1 | 15.2 |
| 2017 | 63253.4 | 13.9 |
| 2018 | 55211.1 | 12.3 |
| 2019 | 49621.3 | 11.1 |
| 2020 | 51064.2 | 11.5 |
Soy deforestation (also called internally “past soy deforestation”) dropped by half from 65,000 ha in 2015 to 38,000 ha in 2020. It seems that most of the deforestation was attributed to other landscapes (e.g. pasture).
Note that the 2020 data could change in the near future, so do not report it in results (likely needing 2021 to confirm).
We no longer provide soy-driven deforestation, so it was removed.
Argentina soy exports
| year | MTONS_TOT_EXP | MHA_TOT_EXP | MTONS | PCT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 44.02795 | 10.486033 | 62.3 | 71 |
| 2016 | 41.63969 | 11.128020 | 56.1 | 74 |
| 2017 | 38.61659 | 9.119358 | 56.4 | 68 |
| 2018 | 26.68284 | 7.865563 | 36.1 | 74 |
| 2019 | 35.66129 | 10.075593 | 53.3 | 67 |
Exports have dropped from 86% of production in 2015 to >100% in 2019 (meaning that additional soy is needed in any one year to meet exports). This drop also correlates to a drop in production (see above).
In 2018 and 2019, exports and production are very close (or exports exceed production), this is where the “Stock” comes into play.
Ports of export based on product
Soy bean mostly leave the Province of BsAs (Campana, BsAs, Necochea, or Bahia Blanca):
- 5.5 Mtons (13% of exports) in 2015
- 5.8 Mtons (15% of exports) in 2016
- 4.2 Mtons (12% of exports) in 2017
- 1.6 Mtons (7% of exports) in 2018
- 5.2 Mtons (16% of exports) in 2019
Soy oil/cake typically leave the ports of San Lorenzo and Rosario: + 28 Mtons in 2019 (80% of exports)
Contributions of ecoregions to Argentina exports
Pampa, Espinal and Chaco are the ecoregion which exports most of its production:
- Pampa with 24 Mtons (55%, 2015) to 24 Mtons in 2019 (68% exports)
- Espinal with 8 Mtons (19%, 2015) to 7.7 Mtons (19% of exports in 2018)
- Chaco with 1.5 Mtons (3%, 2016) to 2.1 Mtons (6% of exports in 2018)
The majority of exports from the ecoregions is cake, but with a greater percentage of bean in the Pampa
Contributions of ecoregions to product export
Trading partners: Countries
The most important trading partners are:
- in 2015: the EU (12.8 Mtons, 29%), CHINA (M) (10.7 Mtons, 24%), VIETNAM (4.2 Mtons, 10%), INDIA (3.6 Mtons, 6%)
- in 2016: the EU (12.5 Mtons, 30%), CHINA (M) (8.6 Mtons, 21%), VIETNAM (5.6 Mtons, 14%), INDIA (3.6 Mtons, 9%)
- in 2017: the EU (10.5 Mtons, 27%), CHINA (M) (6.9 Mtons, 18%), VIETNAM (4.5 Mtons, 12%), INDONESIA (3.6 Mtons, 9%), INDIA (2.8 Mtons, 7%)
- in 2018: the EU (7.6 Mtons, 28%), CHINA (M) (4 Mtons, 15%), VIETNAM (3 Mtons, 11%), INDONESIA (3 Mtons, 11%), INDIA (2.3 Mtons, 9%)
- in 2019: CHINA (M) (11.3 Mtons, 32%), the EU (9.5 Mtons, 27%), VIETNAM (5.2 Mtons, 15%), INDONESIA (3.8 Mtons, 11%), INDIA (3.7 Mtons, 10%)
Indonesia surpassed India in soy imports in 2018, but imports cake rather than oil. China surpassed the EU in 2019, which was also the year when China imported most soybeans ever in the 2015-2019 period.
Major trading partner countries based on product
China surpassed the EU with exports in 2019, as the EU dropped its
imports of soy cake below 10 Mtonnes.
Source of soy traded with partner countries
| year | economic_bloc | MTONS_TOT |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | CHINA | 10.7 |
| 2015 | EU | 12.8 |
| 2015 | INDIA | 3.6 |
| 2016 | CHINA | 8.6 |
| 2016 | EU | 12.5 |
| 2016 | INDIA | 3.6 |
| 2017 | CHINA | 6.9 |
| 2017 | EU | 10.5 |
| 2017 | INDIA | 2.8 |
| 2018 | CHINA | 4.1 |
| 2018 | EU | 7.6 |
| 2018 | INDIA | 2.3 |
| 2019 | CHINA | 11.3 |
| 2019 | EU | 9.5 |
| 2019 | INDIA | 3.7 |
Sourcing of oil/cake is in the Chaco (note that Unknowns and “Stock” are hidden in “Other” category). The inclusion of the stock (or “Other sources”) now includes large uncertainty on where the deforesattion may come from (e.g. Chaco, Atlantic forest considering imports from Paraguay).
China:
- in 2015: 72% Pampa, 17% Other, 9% Espinal, 1.5% Chaco
- in 2016: 86% Pampa, 4% Other, 9% Espinal, 2% Chaco
- in 2017: 80% Pampa, 8% Other, 10% Espinal, 2% Chaco
- in 2018: 70% Pampa, 16% Other, 11% Espinal, 3% Chaco
- in 2019: 74% Pampa, 11% Other, 12% Espinal, 3% Chaco
EU:
- in 2015: 38% Pampa, 40% Other, 18% Espinal, 3% Chaco
- in 2016: 32% Pampa, 48% Other, 16% Espinal, 3% Chaco
- in 2017: 37% Pampa, 41% Other, 18% Espinal, 5% Chaco
- in 2018: 35% Pampa, 50% Other, 11% Espinal, 3% Chaco
- in 2019: 37% Pampa, 45% Other, 15% Espinal, 4% Chaco
India:
- in 2015: 37% Pampa, 43% Other, 17% Espinal, 3% Chaco
- in 2016: 36% Pampa, 44% Other, 17% Espinal, 3% Chaco
- in 2017: 40% Pampa, 35% Other, 19% Espinal, 6% Chaco
- in 2018: 33% Pampa, 54% Other, 10% Espinal, 3% Chaco
- in 2019: 37% Pampa, 43% Other, 16% Espinal, 4% Chaco
Major trading partner countries based on product
The main companies that trade 90% of soy from Argentina are VICENTIN, COFCO, CARGILL, ACEITERA GENERAL DEHEZA SA., BUNGE, LOUIS DREYFUS, PEREZ COMPANC FAMILY GROUP, COMPANIA ARGENTINA DE GRANOS S.A., GLENCORE, ASOCIACION DE COOPERATIVAS ARGENTINAS (COOP.LTDA), UNKNOWN. There is an “Unknown” company which could be a mix of Stock and other things (review later).
All companies except ADM export mostly cake. ADM only exports bean.
Soy deforestation exposure per country
Below graph is for the EU28 imports. Note that the values are the 5-y totals, do not plot a time series.
Note Remember to regenerate the above graph with
China
Highest soy deforestation risk (in ha below) is attributed to the EU with additional risk to
- 2015: China 10.7 Mtons of soy with 1112 ha of soy deforestation risk, Vietnam 4.2 Mtons of soy with 857 ha, Egypt 2.7 Mtons of soy with 736 ha
- 2016: Vietnam 5.6 Mtons of soy with 929 ha, Egypt 3.5 Mtons of soy with 675 ha, India 3.6 Mtonnes of soy with 613 ha (so China has dropped a few spots)
- 2017: Vietnam 4.5 Mtons of soy with 625 ha, Indonesia 3.6 Mtons with 545 ha, India 2.8 Mtonnes with 470 ha
- 2018: Unknown country (this is due to exports from Barranqueras) 4.5 Mtonnes with 4202 ha, Vietnam and Indonesia both imported 3.0526 ha and 509 ha
- 2019: Unknown country (this is due to exports from Barranqueras) 0.4 Mtonnes with 2471 ha (as the highest soy deforestation risk)
Note on Unknown country: There is a large trade flow to an Unknown country in 2018 and 2019. Shipments leave from the port of Barranqueras which are closely linked to the Chaco region, hence the large soy deforestation risk.
Zero Deforestation Commitments
| year | zdc | MTONS | HA_EXP | MTONS_TOT_EXP | PCT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | {UNKNOWN} | 53.4 | 13429.8 | 44.02795 | 121.3 |
| 2016 | COMPANY COMMITMENT | 11.7 | 4586.2 | 41.63969 | 28.1 |
| 2016 | NONE | 22.4 | 7213.5 | 41.63969 | 53.8 |
| 2016 | {UNKNOWN} | 20.4 | 339.9 | 41.63969 | 49.0 |
| 2017 | COMPANY COMMITMENT | 13.7 | 4243.5 | 38.61659 | 35.5 |
| 2017 | NONE | 15.2 | 4267.5 | 38.61659 | 39.4 |
| 2017 | {UNKNOWN} | 17.7 | 626.1 | 38.61659 | 45.8 |
| 2018 | COMPANY COMMITMENT | 10.0 | 5892.6 | 26.68284 | 37.5 |
| 2018 | NONE | 7.8 | 5895.2 | 26.68284 | 29.2 |
| 2018 | {UNKNOWN} | 19.6 | 1963.6 | 26.68284 | 73.5 |
| 2019 | COMPANY COMMITMENT | 20.0 | 6807.6 | 35.66129 | 56.1 |
| 2019 | NONE | 13.6 | 5866.6 | 35.66129 | 38.1 |
| 2019 | {UNKNOWN} | 20.0 | 3018.8 | 35.66129 | 56.1 |
Review these numbers when the data is reviewed
The percentage of company commitments to zero deforestation have increased only because of a drop in exports:
- 17.5 Mtons (34% exports, 2016)
- 14.9 Mtons (39% of exports, 2017)
- 15.9 Mtons (58% exports 2018)
This coverage is small in EU, and most exports of soy leaving the Chaco are without a company commitment
ZDCs in the Chaco
| year | zdc | MTONS | HA_EXP | flag | PCT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | {UNKNOWN} | 1.5 | 12701.4 | CHACO | 100.0 |
| 2016 | COMPANY COMMITMENT | 0.6 | 4302.9 | CHACO | 37.5 |
| 2016 | NONE | 1.0 | 6644.4 | CHACO | 62.5 |
| 2016 | {UNKNOWN} | 0.1 | 278.5 | CHACO | 6.2 |
| 2017 | COMPANY COMMITMENT | 0.9 | 4003.2 | CHACO | 47.4 |
| 2017 | NONE | 0.9 | 4016.4 | CHACO | 47.4 |
| 2017 | {UNKNOWN} | 0.1 | 286.4 | CHACO | 5.3 |
| 2018 | COMPANY COMMITMENT | 0.6 | 5698.9 | CHACO | 50.0 |
| 2018 | NONE | 0.5 | 5511.8 | CHACO | 41.7 |
| 2018 | {UNKNOWN} | 0.1 | 1644.9 | CHACO | 8.3 |
| 2019 | COMPANY COMMITMENT | 1.1 | 6403.1 | CHACO | 52.4 |
| 2019 | NONE | 0.8 | 5620.0 | CHACO | 38.1 |
| 2019 | {UNKNOWN} | 0.2 | 2929.0 | CHACO | 9.5 |
ZDCs specific to China, EU and India
ZDCs specific to China, EU and India specifically in the Chaco
Check ZDCs of companies exporting to Vietnam and Indonesia
| year | zdc | economic_bloc | MTONS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | {UNKNOWN} | INDONESIA | 2.3 |
| 2015 | {UNKNOWN} | VIETNAM | 4.2 |
| 2016 | COMPANY COMMITMENT | INDONESIA | 0.7 |
| 2016 | COMPANY COMMITMENT | VIETNAM | 0.9 |
| 2016 | NONE | INDONESIA | 1.4 |
| 2016 | NONE | VIETNAM | 2.0 |
| 2016 | {UNKNOWN} | INDONESIA | 1.1 |
| 2016 | {UNKNOWN} | VIETNAM | 2.7 |
| 2017 | COMPANY COMMITMENT | INDONESIA | 1.0 |
| 2017 | COMPANY COMMITMENT | VIETNAM | 1.1 |
| 2017 | NONE | INDONESIA | 1.4 |
| 2017 | NONE | VIETNAM | 1.3 |
| 2017 | {UNKNOWN} | INDONESIA | 1.2 |
| 2017 | {UNKNOWN} | VIETNAM | 2.1 |
| 2018 | COMPANY COMMITMENT | INDONESIA | 0.5 |
| 2018 | COMPANY COMMITMENT | VIETNAM | 0.6 |
| 2018 | NONE | INDONESIA | 0.6 |
| 2018 | NONE | VIETNAM | 0.7 |
| 2018 | {UNKNOWN} | INDONESIA | 1.8 |
| 2018 | {UNKNOWN} | VIETNAM | 1.7 |
| 2019 | COMPANY COMMITMENT | INDONESIA | 0.7 |
| 2019 | COMPANY COMMITMENT | VIETNAM | 1.0 |
| 2019 | NONE | INDONESIA | 1.5 |
| 2019 | NONE | VIETNAM | 2.0 |
| 2019 | {UNKNOWN} | INDONESIA | 1.6 |
| 2019 | {UNKNOWN} | VIETNAM | 2.2 |
List of companies exporting to the EU with a ZDCs
## Average performance of companies in the Chaco
References
Baumann M. et al. (2022) Frontier metrics for a process-based understanding of deforestation dynamics. In review.
Song et al. (2021) Massive soybean expansion in South America since 2000 and implications for conservation Nat. Sustain. 4 784–92 Online: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41893-021-00729-z