Indonesian Palm oil SEI-PCS 1.2.2 QA
Jason Benedict and Robert Heilmayr, UCSB
21/05/2024
Introduction
This document summarizes the model outputs from Indonesian Palm Oil v1.2.2 model (2021-2022). We also include data from the previous model (2018-2020) to allow us to look at the annual trends in the model outputs
First we show the summary of flows by year, product/commodity type (CPO/RPO), end use (export/domestic), type of flow (e.g. known/unknown/unknown exports) and the associated volumes in CPO equivalent tonnes.
We then look at the exporter groups that have been linked to refineries with traceability reports (TRs) and linked mills in the model as well the share of volumes covered in each year.
Then we carry out the following QA checks:
- Volume checks (input vs output)
- Exporter market share over time (top exporters)
- Country of import share over time and comparison with official reporting from BPS for China, India, EU (largest importers) & Unknown Country (missing shipments)
- Reported mill group production vs model output
- Reported refinery production vs model output
1. Model flows summary
2. Traceability reporting and linked exporters
3. Reported vs model production
Table of differences between model output production and BPS (Badan Pusat Statistik) reported production
| Year | Model Volume (tonnes) | BPS production (tonnes) | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 42,878,140.76 | 42,883,630.00 | 0.9999 |
| 2019 | 47,113,547.12 | 47,120,245.00 | 0.9999 |
| 2020 | 44,752,612.57 | 44,759,150.00 | 0.9999 |
| 2021 | 45,024,911.33 | 45,121,480.00 | 0.9979 |
| 2022 | 46,687,880.33 | 46,819,672.00 | 0.9972 |
4. Exporters and exports
The plot below summarizes the variation of export volumes for the top traders/exporters in each year. We only used the exporters covering 85% of the volumes traded in each year.
Now, we look at the market share of exporters over time (by commodity type)
We also explore the DMO (Domestic Market Obligation) effect on monthly exports by the top exporters (in May 2022)
The table below summarizes the differences between model output export volumes and BoL (Bills of Lading) volumes
| Year | Model Volume (tonnes) | BoL volume (tonnes) | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 29,044,359.63 | 29,049,848.30 | 0.9998 |
| 2019 | 29,276,463.11 | 29,280,544.72 | 0.9999 |
| 2020 | 26,916,078.05 | 26,919,527.96 | 0.9999 |
| 2021 | 26,690,605.76 | 26,787,174.43 | 0.9964 |
| 2022 | 26,005,293.51 | 26,137,247.38 | 0.9950 |
5. Country of import
The plot below highlights the annual trends of volumes exported to China, India, EU, Unknown Country and Others. “Unknown Country” refers to the missing shipments in the trade data that were padded with BPS export data. We also compare the total exported volumes vs the volumes reported by BPS.
| Year | Region | Model Volume (tonnes) | BPS volume (tonnes) | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | China | 3,706,591.39 | 3,576,821.04 | 1.0363 |
| 2018 | EU | 3,777,814.39 | 3,789,123.84 | 0.9970 |
| 2018 | India | 6,450,803.42 | 6,344,082.59 | 1.0168 |
| 2019 | China | 5,481,945.67 | 5,207,795.41 | 1.0526 |
| 2019 | EU | 3,623,129.27 | 3,535,266.72 | 1.0249 |
| 2019 | India | 4,593,609.57 | 4,568,451.09 | 1.0055 |
| 2020 | China | 4,021,270.40 | 3,878,101.08 | 1.0369 |
| 2020 | EU | 3,046,293.66 | 3,399,277.07 | 0.8962 |
| 2020 | India | 3,880,336.65 | 4,566,464.76 | 0.8497 |
| 2021 | China | 2,949,199.64 | 4,254,424.01 | 0.6932 |
| 2021 | EU | 3,214,927.62 | 2,902,601.49 | 1.1076 |
| 2021 | India | 2,255,025.17 | 3,087,409.69 | 0.7304 |
| 2022 | China | 2,580,740.49 | 3,479,938.16 | 0.7416 |
| 2022 | EU | 1,886,515.00 | 2,243,501.47 | 0.8409 |
| 2022 | India | 2,147,640.36 | 4,996,331.65 | 0.4298 |
6. Mill production
The plot below compares the reported mill group level production for a year with the known mill group level volume flows in the model. The reported group level mill production comes from a variety of sources (e.g company reports, RSPO ACOP) and occasionally reports the full production at the group level and not just the production for the mills of that particular group.
7. Refinery production
The following plot compares the reported refinery production for a year with the known refinery volume flows in the model (only covers exported volumes and not the full refinery production volumes) that be linked via an exporter. The reported refinery production comes from a variety of sources (e.g company reports, SPOTT audit reports, RSPO ACOP, etc).
